Nashville Predators at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints3
Red Wings- Ben ChiarotGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- James van RiemsdykPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:45Steven Stamkos Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (9), Luke Evangelista (11)6–3
- P314:42Erik Haula Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (8), Jonathan Marchessault (3)5–3
- P314:14Ryan O'Reilly Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (10), Steven Stamkos (2)4–3
- P33:04Ben Chiarot Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (6), J.T. Compher (4)3–3
- P32:20Roman Josi Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (8), Michael McCarron (4)3–2
- P32:05Nick Blankenburg Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (8)2–2
- P216:34James van Riemsdyk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (10), Nate Danielson (3)1–2
- P25:30Alex DeBrincat Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (13), Lucas Raymond (18)1–1
- P115:48Michael Bunting Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Nick Blankenburg (6), Erik Haula (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:34James van Riemsdyk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (10), Nate Danielson (3)NSH 1 – 2 DET · DET 56% → 77% +21DET 56% → 77%+21 pts
- P32:05Nick Blankenburg Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (8)NSH 2 – 2 DET · NSH 21% → 45% +24NSH 21% → 45%+24 pts
- P32:20Roman Josi Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (8), Michael McCarron (4)NSH 3 – 2 DET · NSH 45% → 71% +26NSH 45% → 71%+26 pts
- P33:04Ben Chiarot Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (6), J.T. Compher (4)NSH 3 – 3 DET · DET 28% → 55% +26DET 28% → 55%+26 pts
- P314:14Ryan O'Reilly Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (10), Steven Stamkos (2)NSH 4 – 3 DET · NSH 47% → 87% +39NSH 47% → 87%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML NSH +135 / DET -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- DET: Elo 65.4%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -143
- NSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +5 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +111 Elo | DET 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 64.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.3 | Margin | −0.225th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 53.3%6th of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 88.1%27th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 8–58th of 32 |
| 6th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321433 | Elo rating | 149517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–13 | 13–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–3 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.