Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints3
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:38Kirill Kaprizov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (14), Joel Eriksson Ek (12)4–3
- P310:35Matt Boldy Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (6), Brock Faber (9)3–3
- P35:31Artyom Levshunov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Connor Bedard (19), Colton Dach (3)2–3
- P32:17Nico Sturm Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jonas Brodin (5), Jake Middleton (5)2–2
- P219:46Brock Faber Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (12), Matt Boldy (13)1–2
- P212:08Connor Bedard Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Rinzel (6), Tyler Bertuzzi (8)0–2
- P25:41Jason Dickinson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:41Jason Dickinson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneMIN 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 48% → 66% +19CHI 48% → 66%+19 pts
- P32:17Nico Sturm Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jonas Brodin (5), Jake Middleton (5)MIN 2 – 2 CHI · MIN 27% → 52% +25MIN 27% → 52%+25 pts
- P35:31Artyom Levshunov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Connor Bedard (19), Colton Dach (3)MIN 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 48% → 76% +27CHI 48% → 76%+27 pts
- P310:35Matt Boldy Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (6), Brock Faber (9)MIN 3 – 3 CHI · MIN 19% → 51% +33MIN 19% → 51%+33 pts
- OT1:38Kirill Kaprizov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (14), Joel Eriksson Ek (12)MIN 4 – 3 CHI · MIN 51% → 94% +43MIN 51% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -125 / CHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- CHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +11 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +20 Elo | MIN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.38th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.5% | Shot share | 44.6%31st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 91.2%4th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 5–624th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150216th of 32 |
| 14th of 321506 | Elo rating | 144230th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–9 | 18–4 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | — |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 18–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–1 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.