Winnipeg Jets at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals3
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Seth JarvisPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:37Alexander Nikishin Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Robidas (1), Eric Robinson (2)1–5
- P318:57Seth Jarvis Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (7)1–4
- P312:39Seth Jarvis Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (9), Andrei Svechnikov (6)1–3
- P311:52Jordan Martinook Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (15)1–2
- P210:41Mark Scheifele Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (9)1–1
- P116:06Seth Jarvis Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (14), Sebastian Aho (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:06Seth Jarvis Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (14), Sebastian Aho (16)WPG 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 62% → 77% +15CAR 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P210:41Mark Scheifele Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (9)WPG 1 – 1 CAR · WPG 22% → 40% +18WPG 22% → 40%+18 pts
- P311:52Jordan Martinook Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (15)WPG 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 55% → 87% +32CAR 55% → 87%+32 pts
- P312:39Seth Jarvis Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (9), Andrei Svechnikov (6)WPG 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 88% → 99% +11CAR 88% → 99%+11 pts
- P318:57Seth Jarvis Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (7)WPG 1 – 4 CAR · CAR >99% → 100% +0CAR >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML WPG +170 / CAR -200
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 55.2%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -180
- WPG +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 3.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −4 | WPG: Thomas Milic (no track record yet) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +36 Elo | CAR 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.1% | Shot share | 57.2%1st of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.1%22nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 6–48th of 32 |
| 31st of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 32 |
| 4th of 321546 | Elo rating | 15416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–12 | 9–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–2 CAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.