New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists1
- Vincent TrocheckPoints1
Hurricanes- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:17Will Cuylle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P310:53Seth Jarvis Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (13), Sebastian Aho (15)3–2
- P30:45Vincent Trocheck Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (15), Mika Zibanejad (9)3–1
- P218:56Artemi Panarin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (19), J.T. Miller (7)2–1
- P25:04Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (14), Nikolaj Ehlers (11)1–1
- P116:53Noah Laba Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (2), Matthew Robertson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:53Noah Laba Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (2), Matthew Robertson (1)NYR 1 – 0 CAR · NYR 39% → 56% +17NYR 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P25:04Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (14), Nikolaj Ehlers (11)NYR 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 41% → 60% +19CAR 41% → 60%+19 pts
- P218:56Artemi Panarin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (19), J.T. Miller (7)NYR 2 – 1 CAR · NYR 42% → 66% +24NYR 42% → 66%+24 pts
- P30:45Vincent Trocheck Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (15), Mika Zibanejad (9)NYR 3 – 1 CAR · NYR 68% → 86% +19NYR 68% → 86%+19 pts
- P310:53Seth Jarvis Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (13), Sebastian Aho (15)NYR 3 – 2 CAR · CAR 4% → 21% +17CAR 4% → 21%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 63%
- ML NYR +160 / CAR -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 60.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -170
- NYR +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.4 – 3.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −3 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +75 Elo | CAR 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 62.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.63rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 56.8%1st of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 89.3%22nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 3rd of 329–5 | Road vs home | 6–35th of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150414th of 32 |
| 13th of 321505 | Elo rating | 15464th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–12 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–16 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 6–8 CAR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
- Nov 4CAR 3 @ NYR 0Picked CAR 51%Hit
- Apr 12NYR 3 @ CAR 7Picked CAR 64%Hit
- Jan 28CAR 4 @ NYR 0Picked CAR 55%Hit
- Dec 22CAR 3 @ NYR 1Picked CAR 57%Hit
- Nov 27NYR 3 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 62%Hit
- May 16NYR 5 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 55%Miss
- May 13CAR 4 @ NYR 1PlayoffsPicked NYR 55%Miss
- May 11NYR 3 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 55%Hit