Buffalo Sabres at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Beck MalenstynGoals1
- Peyton KrebsAssists1
- Beck MalenstynPoints1
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Noah Ostlund Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Kirill Kaprizov Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Jack Quinn Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Matt Boldy Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Tage Thompson Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- P36:01Josh Doan Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (14), Noah Ostlund (3)2–2
- P114:05Matt Boldy Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P112:42Beck Malenstyn Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Peyton Krebs (7), Josh Dunne (2)1–1
- P19:37Kirill Kaprizov Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (9), Danila Yurov (4)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:37Kirill Kaprizov Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (9), Danila Yurov (4)BUF 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 56% → 71% +15MIN 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P112:42Beck Malenstyn Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Peyton Krebs (7), Josh Dunne (2)BUF 1 – 1 MIN · BUF 29% → 44% +15BUF 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P114:05Matt Boldy Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 55% → 71% +16MIN 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P36:01Josh Doan Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (14), Noah Ostlund (3)BUF 2 – 2 MIN · BUF 20% → 47% +27BUF 20% → 47%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 56%
- ML BUF +120 / MIN -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -128
- BUF +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.1 – 3.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MIN and BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +80 Elo | MIN 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 26th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.29th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.2% | Shot share | 48.1%22nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–8 | Road vs home | 8–611th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 32 |
| 29th of 321469 | Elo rating | 151112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–14 | 15–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 12–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–11 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.