Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Ryan HartmanAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matt Boldy Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Martin Necas Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Mats Zuccarello Goal Backhand1–2
- P311:08Gabriel Landeskog Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (22), Cale Makar (22)2–2
- P218:03Kirill Kaprizov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (4), Yakov Trenin (5)1–2
- P212:00Kirill Kaprizov Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Zeev Buium (9), Mats Zuccarello (8)1–1
- P114:54Nathan MacKinnon Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (13)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:54Nathan MacKinnon Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (13)COL 1 – 0 MIN · COL 61% → 76% +15COL 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P212:00Kirill Kaprizov Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Zeev Buium (9), Mats Zuccarello (8)COL 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 22% → 41% +19MIN 22% → 41%+19 pts
- P218:03Kirill Kaprizov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (4), Yakov Trenin (5)COL 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 42% → 66% +24MIN 42% → 66%+24 pts
- P311:08Gabriel Landeskog Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (22), Cale Makar (22)COL 2 – 2 MIN · COL 21% → 55% +35COL 21% → 55%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 63%
- ML COL -190 / MIN +160
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- COL: Elo 55.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -170
- MIN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 2.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +13 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +39 Elo | COL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 1st of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.9 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 48.0%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 91.4%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3210–0 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–4 | Road vs home | 7–617th of 32 |
| 30th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 32 |
| 1st of 321585 | Elo rating | 150813th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–9 | 14–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–9 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–14 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–2 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.