San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:15Artturi Lehkonen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (21), Martin Necas (17)0–6
- P25:00Joel Kiviranta Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Ivan (1), Zakhar Bardakov (4)0–5
- P24:51Josh Manson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (10), Parker Kelly (6)0–4
- P23:44Sam Malinski Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (12), Martin Necas (16)0–3
- P119:07Nathan MacKinnon Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (21), Gabriel Landeskog (6)0–2
- P13:39Ross Colton Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:39Ross Colton Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneSJ 0 – 1 COL · COL 75% → 85% +10COL 75% → 85%+10 pts
- P119:07Nathan MacKinnon Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (21), Gabriel Landeskog (6)SJ 0 – 2 COL · COL 84% → 93% +8COL 84% → 93%+8 pts
- P23:44Sam Malinski Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (12), Martin Necas (16)SJ 0 – 3 COL · COL 93% → 97% +4COL 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P24:51Josh Manson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (10), Parker Kelly (6)SJ 0 – 4 COL · COL 97% → >99% +2COL 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P25:00Joel Kiviranta Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Ivan (1), Zakhar Bardakov (4)SJ 0 – 5 COL · COL >99% → >99% +1COL >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- COL 76%
- ML SJ +290 / COL -380
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- COL: Elo 74.9%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -309
- SJ +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −7 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +190 Elo | COL 74.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 77.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 77.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.71st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.5% | Shot share | 56.0%2nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.6%2nd of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–5 | Road vs home | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321409 | Elo rating | 15831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–6 | 13–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 12–9 |
| Underdog | 17–6 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–6 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.