Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- Henri JokiharjuAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints1
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:53Collin Graf Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (9), Macklin Celebrini (20)1–3
- P310:02Morgan Geekie Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (18), Henri Jokiharju (5)1–2
- P211:45Macklin Celebrini Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (13), Tyler Toffoli (7)0–2
- P115:53Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (5), Barclay Goodrow (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:53Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (5), Barclay Goodrow (2)BOS 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 47% → 64% +17SJ 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P211:45Macklin Celebrini Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (13), Tyler Toffoli (7)BOS 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 68% → 84% +16SJ 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P310:02Morgan Geekie Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (18), Henri Jokiharju (5)BOS 1 – 2 SJ · BOS 4% → 19% +15BOS 4% → 19%+15 pts
- P318:53Collin Graf Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (9), Macklin Celebrini (20)BOS 1 – 3 SJ · SJ >99% → >99% +0SJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML BOS -125 / SJ +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- SJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.8 – 2.7 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +9 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +72 Elo | BOS 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.025th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.326th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 43.4%32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%10th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 20th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 6–723rd of 32 |
| 1st of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 15093rd of 32 |
| 20th of 321487 | Elo rating | 140532nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–6 | 16–6 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | — |
| Underdog | 16–4 | 16–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–1 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.