Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Ben HuttonAssists1
- Mark StonePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:03Juraj Slafkovský Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (20)4–1
- P315:16Mark Stone Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (19), Ben Hutton (4)3–1
- P33:36Jake Evans Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (2), Mike Matheson (11)3–0
- P22:04Cole Caufield Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (6), Alexandre Carrier (7)2–0
- P114:30Zachary Bolduc Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (5), Cole Caufield (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:30Zachary Bolduc Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (5), Cole Caufield (11)MTL 1 – 0 VGK · MTL 38% → 54% +17MTL 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P22:04Cole Caufield Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (6), Alexandre Carrier (7)MTL 2 – 0 VGK · MTL 57% → 74% +17MTL 57% → 74%+17 pts
- P33:36Jake Evans Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (2), Mike Matheson (11)MTL 3 – 0 VGK · MTL 89% → 97% +8MTL 89% → 97%+8 pts
- P315:16Mark Stone Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (19), Ben Hutton (4)MTL 3 – 1 VGK · VGK <1% → <1% +1VGK <1% → <1%+1 pts
- P318:03Juraj Slafkovský Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (20)MTL 4 – 1 VGK · MTL >99% → >99% +0MTL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 64%
- ML MTL +165 / VGK -200
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 61.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- VGK -177
- MTL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.6 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −1 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +82 Elo | VGK 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 64.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 19th of 3248.3% | Shot share | 54.4%4th of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%23rd of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Road vs home | 5–725th of 32 |
| 26th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 32 |
| 19th of 321485 | Elo rating | 15249th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–14 | 7–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 17–5 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–3 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.