Montreal Canadiens at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals2
- Zack BolducAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Mammoth- Michael CarconeGoals1
- John MarinoAssists1
- Michael CarconePoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:47Ivan Demidov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (5), Noah Dobson (13)4–3
- P33:20Nick Suzuki Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (5), Brendan Gallagher (9)3–3
- P213:52Michael Carcone Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (3), John Marino (10)2–3
- P211:58Kailer Yamamoto Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (9), Logan Cooley (9)2–2
- P29:43Barrett Hayton Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (13), Mikhail Sergachev (13)2–1
- P116:37Nick Suzuki Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (10), Zachary Bolduc (4)2–0
- P110:38Zachary Bolduc Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (16), Nick Suzuki (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:43Barrett Hayton Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (13), Mikhail Sergachev (13)MTL 2 – 1 UTA · UTA 18% → 34% +16UTA 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P211:58Kailer Yamamoto Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (9), Logan Cooley (9)MTL 2 – 2 UTA · UTA 33% → 54% +21UTA 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P213:52Michael Carcone Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (3), John Marino (10)MTL 2 – 3 UTA · UTA 53% → 74% +20UTA 53% → 74%+20 pts
- P33:20Nick Suzuki Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (5), Brendan Gallagher (9)MTL 3 – 3 UTA · MTL 22% → 47% +25MTL 22% → 47%+25 pts
- P34:47Ivan Demidov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (5), Noah Dobson (13)MTL 4 – 3 UTA · MTL 47% → 74% +27MTL 47% → 74%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 55%
- ML MTL +115 / UTA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- UTA: Elo 57.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -124
- MTL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.6 – 2.9 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +5 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +56 Elo | UTA 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 18th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 54.2%3rd of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 88.5%26th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 8th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 7–34th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321483 | Elo rating | 150016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–14 | 10–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–5 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–1 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.
