Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Ivan DemidovGoals1
- Oliver KapanenAssists1
- Lane HutsonPoints1
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals2
- Martin NecasAssists3
- Brock NelsonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P36:52Gabriel Landeskog Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (24), Martin Necas (20)2–7
- P35:10Lane Hutson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (12), Nick Suzuki (21)2–6
- P32:51Devon Toews Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (19), Nathan MacKinnon (23)1–6
- P219:05Nathan MacKinnon Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (7), Cale Makar (23)1–5
- P28:27Ivan Demidov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (6), Oliver Kapanen (6)1–4
- P23:55Brock Nelson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (18), Artturi Lehkonen (15)0–4
- P20:50Brent Burns Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (8)0–3
- P113:25Gabriel Landeskog Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (7), Ross Colton (8)0–2
- P17:32Brock Nelson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (14), Joel Kiviranta (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:32Brock Nelson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (14), Joel Kiviranta (1)MTL 0 – 1 COL · COL 68% → 81% +12COL 68% → 81%+12 pts
- P113:25Gabriel Landeskog Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (7), Ross Colton (8)MTL 0 – 2 COL · COL 81% → 90% +9COL 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P20:50Brent Burns Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (8)MTL 0 – 3 COL · COL 91% → 96% +6COL 91% → 96%+6 pts
- P23:55Brock Nelson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (18), Artturi Lehkonen (15)MTL 0 – 4 COL · COL 96% → 99% +2COL 96% → 99%+2 pts
- P28:27Ivan Demidov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (6), Oliver Kapanen (6)MTL 1 – 4 COL · MTL <1% → 3% +2MTL <1% → 3%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 69%
- ML MTL +215 / COL -260
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- COL: Elo 66.4%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -228
- MTL +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.7 – 3.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | COL and MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −5 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +119 Elo | COL 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 26th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.21st of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +1.81st of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 56.0%2nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 4th of 327–4 | Road vs home | 9–22nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149031st of 32 |
| 17th of 321491 | Elo rating | 15831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–14 | 14–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 13–10 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 17–6 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–1 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.