Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Jordan SpenceAssists2
- Brady TkachukPoints2
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:43Brady Tkachuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (13), David Perron (10)5–2
- P28:50Nick Suzuki Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (14), Lane Hutson (17)4–2
- P26:58Drake Batherson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (4), Jordan Spence (9)4–1
- P25:48Jake Sanderson Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Michael Amadio (5)3–1
- P116:53Artem Zub Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (5), Fabian Zetterlund (4)2–1
- P14:01Fabian Zetterlund Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (3), Jordan Spence (8)1–1
- P13:37Juraj Slafkovský Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (13), Nick Suzuki (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:37Juraj Slafkovský Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (13), Nick Suzuki (22)OTT 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 47% → 62% +15MTL 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P14:01Fabian Zetterlund Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (3), Jordan Spence (8)OTT 1 – 1 MTL · OTT 38% → 53% +15OTT 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P116:53Artem Zub Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (5), Fabian Zetterlund (4)OTT 2 – 1 MTL · OTT 53% → 69% +16OTT 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P25:48Jake Sanderson Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Michael Amadio (5)OTT 3 – 1 MTL · OTT 71% → 85% +14OTT 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P26:58Drake Batherson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (4), Jordan Spence (9)OTT 4 – 1 MTL · OTT 85% → 94% +9OTT 85% → 94%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 53%
- ML OTT -125 / MTL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 47.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -114
- MTL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 2.7 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −7 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +20 Elo | MTL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 47.4%25th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 87.7%29th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 22nd of 326–8 | Road vs home | 6–620th of 32 |
| 25th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 15th of 321499 | Elo rating | 148818th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–16 | 9–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–14 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–10 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 4–4 MTL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.