Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Jake SandersonGoals1
- Nick CousinsAssists1
- Jake SandersonPoints1
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals3
- Mikko RantanenAssists3
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:41Wyatt Johnston Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (14), Jason Robertson (19)1–6
- P37:24Jamie Benn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (23), Wyatt Johnston (14)1–5
- P32:52Wyatt Johnston Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (22), Roope Hintz (13)1–4
- P215:33Wyatt Johnston Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (21), Jason Robertson (18)1–3
- P29:20Jason Robertson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P28:36Jake Sanderson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (9), Nick Cousins (3)1–1
- P21:58Mavrik Bourque Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (5), Oskar Bäck (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:58Mavrik Bourque Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (5), Oskar Bäck (3)OTT 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 54% → 71% +17DAL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P28:36Jake Sanderson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (9), Nick Cousins (3)OTT 1 – 1 DAL · OTT 27% → 46% +19OTT 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P29:20Jason Robertson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 54% → 73% +19DAL 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P215:33Wyatt Johnston Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (21), Jason Robertson (18)OTT 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 74% → 89% +15DAL 74% → 89%+15 pts
- P32:52Wyatt Johnston Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (22), Roope Hintz (13)OTT 1 – 4 DAL · DAL 92% → 98% +6DAL 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 55%
- ML OTT +115 / DAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 62.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -124
- OTT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +3 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +85 Elo | DAL 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 48.3%21st of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%8th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 16th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 7–510th of 32 |
| 28th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 32 |
| 15th of 321503 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–15 | 10–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–14 | 3–15 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 14–10 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–3 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.