Utah Mammoth at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Kevin RooneyGoals1
- John MarinoAssists2
- John MarinoPoints2
Stars- Roope HintzGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:33Wyatt Johnston Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (20), Miro Heiskanen (19)3–4
- P216:14Jack McBain Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Lawson Crouse (5), John Marino (12)3–3
- P29:18Jason Robertson Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Kyle Capobianco (3), Justin Hryckowian (5)2–3
- P28:16Jamie Benn Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Petrovic (6)2–2
- P117:38Roope Hintz Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (19), Miro Heiskanen (18)2–1
- P112:17Kevin Rooney Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: John Marino (11), Michael Carcone (4)2–0
- P10:57Logan Cooley Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (10), Kailer Yamamoto (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:38Roope Hintz Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (19), Miro Heiskanen (18)UTA 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 22% → 37% +15DAL 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P28:16Jamie Benn Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Petrovic (6)UTA 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 34% → 53% +20DAL 34% → 53%+20 pts
- P29:18Jason Robertson Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Kyle Capobianco (3), Justin Hryckowian (5)UTA 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 53% → 72% +19DAL 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P216:14Jack McBain Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Lawson Crouse (5), John Marino (12)UTA 3 – 3 DAL · UTA 26% → 47% +21UTA 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P218:33Wyatt Johnston Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (20), Miro Heiskanen (19)UTA 3 – 4 DAL · DAL 53% → 75% +22DAL 53% → 75%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML UTA +110 / DAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- UTA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +1 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +100 Elo | DAL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.72nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.7% | Shot share | 48.3%19th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%8th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 325–8 | Road vs home | 6–513th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150216th of 32 |
| 16th of 321497 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–14 | 10–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 3–14 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.
