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Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Victory+

Away

Stars

14-5-4

8–3

at

Home

Oilers

10-10-5

DAL 45%EDM 55%

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Rogers Place · ESPN+, Victory+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored DAL favored11 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P315:39Nathan Bastian Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (9)8–3
  • P39:31Jack Roslovic Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (24), Matt Savoie (4)7–3
  • P38:21Justin Hryckowian Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (5), Vladislav Kolyachonok (1)7–2
  • P31:23Evan Bouchard Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (6), Leon Draisaitl (15)6–2
  • P215:36Wyatt Johnston Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (17), Tyler Seguin (8)6–1
  • P214:01Jason Robertson Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Tyler Seguin (7), Wyatt Johnston (13)5–1
  • P24:39Connor Clattenburg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (3), Mattias Janmark (3)4–1
  • P118:46Sam Steel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (2), Wyatt Johnston (12)4–0
  • P115:24Nathan Bastian Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (8), Colin Blackwell (4)3–0
  • P110:51Roope Hintz Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (17), Jason Robertson (16)2–0
  • P13:48Jamie Benn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (11), Sam Steel (6)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P13:48Jamie Benn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (11), Sam Steel (6)DAL 1 – 0 EDM · DAL 45% → 60% +15
  2. P110:51Roope Hintz Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (17), Jason Robertson (16)DAL 2 – 0 EDM · DAL 61% → 75% +14
  3. P115:24Nathan Bastian Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (8), Colin Blackwell (4)DAL 3 – 0 EDM · DAL 77% → 88% +11
  4. P118:46Sam Steel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (2), Wyatt Johnston (12)DAL 4 – 0 EDM · DAL 89% → 95% +6
  5. P24:39Connor Clattenburg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (3), Mattias Janmark (3)DAL 4 – 1 EDM · EDM 4% → 9% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 55%

LeanMiss
DAL 45%EDM 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
EDM 55%
ML DAL +115 / EDM -135
Pre-line forecast
EDM 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 53%
Ratings vs. market
−2.2 pts
EDM: Elo 53.1%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
EDM -124
DAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 2.6 – 2.9 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALEDMWhy
Team rating15401533Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+1−6DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +21 EloEDM 53.1%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 57.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 56.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatEDM
7th of 323.3Goals scored3.120th of 32
11th of 322.8Goals allowed3.628th of 32
5th of 32+0.5Margin−0.528th of 32
23rd of 3248.2%Shot share51.8%9th of 32
9th of 3290.7%Save percentage87.4%31st of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 104–620th of 32
4th of 327–4Road vs home5–38th of 32
16th of 321502Opponent Elo150117th of 32
6th of 321540Elo rating15337th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALEDM
Puck line9–138–16
Last 104–65–5
Favorite3–133–14
Underdog6–05–2
Overs–unders10–1214–10
Overs–unders, last 105–57–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 8–10 EDM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.