Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Joel FarabeePoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Nazem Kadri Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Morgan Frost Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P316:53Roope Hintz Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (15), Esa Lindell (5)2–2
- P36:44Jason Robertson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (6), Kyle Capobianco (1)1–2
- P31:50Joel Farabee Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Andersson (8), Nazem Kadri (12)0–2
- P111:41Matt Coronato Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (11), Jonathan Huberdeau (8)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:41Matt Coronato Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (11), Jonathan Huberdeau (8)DAL 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 45% → 61% +16CGY 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P31:50Joel Farabee Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Andersson (8), Nazem Kadri (12)DAL 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 72% → 90% +17CGY 72% → 90%+17 pts
- P36:44Jason Robertson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (6), Kyle Capobianco (1)DAL 1 – 2 CGY · DAL 7% → 24% +17DAL 7% → 24%+17 pts
- P316:53Roope Hintz Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (15), Esa Lindell (5)DAL 2 – 2 CGY · DAL 6% → 51% +45DAL 6% → 51%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 55%
- ML DAL -135 / CGY +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 57.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −12 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +54 Elo | DAL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.332nd of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.2% | Shot share | 51.0%12th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%13th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Road vs home | 3–627th of 32 |
| 14th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 32 |
| 5th of 321543 | Elo rating | 146729th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–12 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 6–0 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–2 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.