Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Oskar BackAssists1
- Colin BlackwellPoints1
Canucks- Linus KarlssonGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists1
- Elias PetterssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:29Mikko Rantanen Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Jamie Benn (1), Miro Heiskanen (16)4–2
- P310:47Colin Blackwell Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (7), Oskar Bäck (2)3–2
- P114:25Elias Pettersson Goal (7) Batted, assists: Jake DeBrusk (3), Kiefer Sherwood (4)2–2
- P17:44Jason Robertson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P13:06Linus Karlsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P10:55Mavrik Bourque Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:55Mavrik Bourque Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (3)DAL 1 – 0 VAN · DAL 57% → 71% +14DAL 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P13:06Linus Karlsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 29% → 43% +14VAN 29% → 43%+14 pts
- P17:44Jason Robertson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 2 – 1 VAN · DAL 57% → 71% +15DAL 57% → 71%+15 pts
- P114:25Elias Pettersson Goal (7) Batted, assists: Jake DeBrusk (3), Kiefer Sherwood (4)DAL 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 28% → 44% +16VAN 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P310:47Colin Blackwell Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (7), Oskar Bäck (2)DAL 3 – 2 VAN · DAL 53% → 84% +31DAL 53% → 84%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 57%
- ML DAL -145 / VAN +125
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 53.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -133
- VAN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.5 – 3.0 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −6 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +26 Elo | DAL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 45.6%30th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326–3 | Road vs home | 3–628th of 32 |
| 12th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 32 |
| 5th of 321539 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–12 | 12–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 6–0 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 10–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–3 VAN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.