Dallas Stars at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Roope HintzGoals1
- Tyler SeguinAssists2
- Tyler SeguinPoints2
Kraken- Brandon MontourGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Brandon MontourPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:16Vladislav Kolyachonok Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (10), Kyle Capobianco (2)3–2
- P30:18Vince Dunn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (2)2–2
- P26:13Esa Lindell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (4), Tyler Seguin (9)2–1
- P19:06Brandon Montour Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (6), Berkly Catton (5)1–1
- P15:52Roope Hintz Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Alexander Petrovic (5), Jamie Benn (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:52Roope Hintz Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Alexander Petrovic (5), Jamie Benn (3)DAL 1 – 0 SEA · DAL 53% → 68% +15DAL 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P19:06Brandon Montour Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (6), Berkly Catton (5)DAL 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 32% → 47% +15SEA 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P26:13Esa Lindell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (4), Tyler Seguin (9)DAL 2 – 1 SEA · DAL 52% → 71% +18DAL 52% → 71%+18 pts
- P30:18Vince Dunn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (2)DAL 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 25% → 48% +23SEA 25% → 48%+23 pts
- P314:16Vladislav Kolyachonok Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (10), Kyle Capobianco (2)DAL 3 – 2 SEA · DAL 51% → 89% +38DAL 51% → 89%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML DAL -125 / SEA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 49.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 2.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +8 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +4 Elo | SEA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.121st of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 46.5%30th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–4 | Road vs home | 6–49th of 32 |
| 17th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 32 |
| 4th of 321546 | Elo rating | 147925th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–13 | 16–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–13 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 7–0 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.