Seattle Kraken at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors NYI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken
IslandersScoring summary
- SO0:00Kyle Palmieri Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Bo Horvat Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Freddy Gaudreau Goal Snap Shot1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 58%
- ML SEA +130 / NYI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- NYI: Elo 55.1%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NYI -138
- SEA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYI and SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +6 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +36 Elo | NYI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 18th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 49.9%15th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%12th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 20th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 4–525th of 32 |
| 29th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 32 |
| 25th of 321481 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–6 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 12–3 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–0 NYI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.