Anaheim Ducks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Pavel MintyukovGoals1
- Pavel MintyukovAssists1
- Pavel MintyukovPoints2
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:23Chris Kreider Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (22)4–1
- P35:58Leo Carlsson Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (3), Pavel Mintyukov (4)3–1
- P110:24Pavel Mintyukov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Moore (2)2–1
- P16:53Jordan Kyrou Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (13), Jake Neighbours (4)1–1
- P16:33Mason McTavish Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:33Mason McTavish Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (13)ANA 1 – 0 STL · ANA 42% → 57% +15ANA 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P16:53Jordan Kyrou Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (13), Jake Neighbours (4)ANA 1 – 1 STL · STL 43% → 58% +15STL 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P110:24Pavel Mintyukov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ian Moore (2)ANA 2 – 1 STL · ANA 42% → 58% +16ANA 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P35:58Leo Carlsson Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (3), Pavel Mintyukov (4)ANA 3 – 1 STL · ANA 74% → 92% +18ANA 74% → 92%+18 pts
- P317:23Chris Kreider Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (22)ANA 4 – 1 STL · ANA >99% → >99% +0ANA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 59%
- ML ANA +135 / STL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- STL: Elo 62.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- STL -143
- ANA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +3 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +89 Elo | STL 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 48.1%22nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 88.0%27th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 17th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 5–928th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321480 | Elo rating | 149217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–12 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 15–10 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 0–6 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.