Anaheim Ducks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists2
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals2
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:05Connor Bedard Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P39:55Connor Bedard Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–4
- P212:34Colton Dach Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (11), Artyom Levshunov (12)3–3
- P26:43Ryan Greene Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (21), Andre Burakovsky (10)3–2
- P117:57Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Frank Nazar (12), Connor Bedard (20)3–1
- P110:25Chris Kreider Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Beckett Sennecke (12), Mason McTavish (13)3–0
- P10:47Olen Zellweger Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (22), Cutter Gauthier (15)2–0
- P10:15Cutter Gauthier Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (21), Leo Carlsson (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:15Cutter Gauthier Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (21), Leo Carlsson (21)ANA 1 – 0 CHI · ANA 51% → 65% +14ANA 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P10:47Olen Zellweger Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (22), Cutter Gauthier (15)ANA 2 – 0 CHI · ANA 65% → 78% +12ANA 65% → 78%+12 pts
- P26:43Ryan Greene Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (21), Andre Burakovsky (10)ANA 3 – 2 CHI · CHI 16% → 30% +15CHI 16% → 30%+15 pts
- P212:34Colton Dach Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (11), Artyom Levshunov (12)ANA 3 – 3 CHI · CHI 29% → 49% +20CHI 29% → 49%+20 pts
- P39:55Connor Bedard Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 3 – 4 CHI · CHI 50% → 81% +31CHI 50% → 81%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 51%
- ML ANA -115 / CHI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- ANA: Elo 49.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ANA -104
- CHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.3 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +10 | ANA: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +3 Elo | CHI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 45.5%31st of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%6th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 14th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 5–826th of 32 |
| 12th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 20th of 321484 | Elo rating | 143731st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–11 | 20–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | — |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 20–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–10 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–5 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.