Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Max SassonGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Max SassonPoints2
Ducks- Jackson LaCombeGoals1
- Jackson LaCombeAssists2
- Jackson LaCombePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:53Cutter Gauthier Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Jackson LaCombe (10), Chris Kreider (6)5–4
- P318:08Drew O'Connor Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (14)5–3
- P315:58Max Sasson Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (13), Quinn Hughes (20)4–3
- P218:34Mason McTavish Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (10), Jackson LaCombe (9)3–3
- P216:19Leo Carlsson Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Troy Terry (19), Olen Zellweger (5)3–2
- P29:04Conor Garland Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (7), Tom Willander (5)3–1
- P20:09Jackson LaCombe Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (14)2–1
- P111:47Evander Kane Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Willander (4), Filip Hronek (12)2–0
- P19:49Linus Karlsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Max Sasson (2), Marcus Pettersson (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:49Linus Karlsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Max Sasson (2), Marcus Pettersson (4)VAN 1 – 0 ANA · VAN 43% → 59% +16VAN 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P29:04Conor Garland Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (7), Tom Willander (5)VAN 3 – 1 ANA · VAN 64% → 81% +17VAN 64% → 81%+17 pts
- P216:19Leo Carlsson Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Troy Terry (19), Olen Zellweger (5)VAN 3 – 2 ANA · ANA 15% → 32% +17ANA 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P218:34Mason McTavish Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (10), Jackson LaCombe (9)VAN 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 31% → 55% +24ANA 31% → 55%+24 pts
- P315:58Max Sasson Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (13), Quinn Hughes (20)VAN 4 – 3 ANA · VAN 48% → 91% +43VAN 48% → 91%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 58%
- ML VAN +130 / ANA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- ANA: Elo 53.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- ANA -138
- VAN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.5 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −4 | VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ANA: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +26 Elo | ANA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 49.9%15th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 14th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 32 |
| 26th of 321475 | Elo rating | 148423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–11 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–6 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 6–1 ANA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.