Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists2
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Canucks- Filip HronekGoals1
- Kevin LankinenAssists1
- Filip HronekPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:16Quinn Hughes Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kevin Lankinen (1)5–2
- P37:59Blake Coleman Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Backlund (9)5–1
- P216:31Yegor Sharangovich Goal (3) Batted, assists: Rasmus Andersson (11), Nazem Kadri (14)4–1
- P210:37Kevin Bahl Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (13), Rasmus Andersson (10)3–1
- P18:08Connor Zary Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (8), Blake Coleman (2)2–1
- P17:33Morgan Frost Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Andersson (9), Matt Coronato (6)1–1
- P11:05Filip Hronek Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:05Filip Hronek Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (4)CGY 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 55% → 69% +14VAN 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P17:33Morgan Frost Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Andersson (9), Matt Coronato (6)CGY 1 – 1 VAN · CGY 30% → 45% +15CGY 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P18:08Connor Zary Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (8), Blake Coleman (2)CGY 2 – 1 VAN · CGY 45% → 61% +16CGY 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P210:37Kevin Bahl Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (13), Rasmus Andersson (10)CGY 3 – 1 VAN · CGY 67% → 83% +16CGY 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P216:31Yegor Sharangovich Goal (3) Batted, assists: Rasmus Andersson (11), Nazem Kadri (14)CGY 4 – 1 VAN · CGY 86% → 95% +9CGY 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 55%
- ML CGY +115 / VAN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 59.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.6 – 2.9 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −6 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +63 Elo | VAN 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.9%24th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–10 | Road vs home | 3–729th of 32 |
| 20th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150511th of 32 |
| 28th of 321470 | Elo rating | 148125th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–10 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9 | 16–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–6 VAN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.