Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Alex TurcotteGoals1
- Brian DumoulinAssists2
- Brian DumoulinPoints2
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals1
- Leo CarlssonAssists2
- Leo CarlssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mason McTavish Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Troy Terry Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P318:29Leo Carlsson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (11), Mason McTavish (12)4–4
- P310:42Pavel Mintyukov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (11), Mason McTavish (11)4–3
- P36:53Joel Edmundson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (5), Trevor Moore (6)4–2
- P33:23Alex Turcotte Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (9), Brian Dumoulin (5)3–2
- P211:02Olen Zellweger Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (7), Leo Carlsson (20)2–2
- P210:03Kevin Fiala Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (14), Brandt Clarke (8)2–1
- P29:00Chris Kreider Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Troy Terry (20), Leo Carlsson (19)1–1
- P117:48Alex Laferriere Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Trevor Moore (5), Brian Dumoulin (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:00Chris Kreider Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Troy Terry (20), Leo Carlsson (19)LA 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 27% → 46% +19ANA 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P210:03Kevin Fiala Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (14), Brandt Clarke (8)LA 2 – 1 ANA · LA 54% → 73% +19LA 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P211:02Olen Zellweger Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (7), Leo Carlsson (20)LA 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 27% → 46% +19ANA 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P33:23Alex Turcotte Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (9), Brian Dumoulin (5)LA 3 – 2 ANA · LA 53% → 78% +25LA 53% → 78%+25 pts
- P318:29Leo Carlsson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (11), Mason McTavish (12)LA 4 – 4 ANA · ANA 1% → 49% +48ANA 1% → 49%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 55%
- ML LA -135 / ANA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- LA: Elo 53.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -124
- ANA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.4 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −10 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +24 Elo | LA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 50.4%15th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%18th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 3rd of 329–5 | Road vs home | 8–33rd of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 32 |
| 10th of 321523 | Elo rating | 148124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–13 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 6–2 ANA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.