Utah Mammoth at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Dylan HollowayPoints1
Scoring summary
- P218:10Dylan Holloway Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (8), Robert Thomas (12)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:10Dylan Holloway Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (8), Robert Thomas (12)UTA 0 – 1 STL · STL 47% → 71% +23STL 47% → 71%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 54%
- ML UTA -130 / STL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 47.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.9 – 2.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | STL and UTA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −6 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +18 Elo | STL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.5% | Shot share | 48.1%23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 87.7%31st of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 26th of 325–9 | Road vs home | 4–928th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 32 |
| 16th of 321496 | Elo rating | 149017th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–14 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.
