St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pius SuterGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists1
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints1
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals2
- Elias LindholmAssists3
- Morgan GeekiePoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:07Pius Suter Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (7), Jordan Kyrou (8)2–5
- P219:59Pavel Zacha Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (12), Morgan Geekie (10)1–5
- P212:26Pavel Zacha Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (5), Mason Lohrei (10)1–4
- P26:04Viktor Arvidsson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (9)1–3
- P21:59Pavel Buchnevich Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (8)1–2
- P111:25Morgan Geekie Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (11), Alex Steeves (2)0–2
- P16:30Alex Steeves Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (9), Elias Lindholm (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:30Alex Steeves Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (9), Elias Lindholm (10)STL 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 44% → 59% +15BOS 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P111:25Morgan Geekie Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (11), Alex Steeves (2)STL 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 60% → 75% +14BOS 60% → 75%+14 pts
- P21:59Pavel Buchnevich Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (8)STL 1 – 2 BOS · STL 21% → 37% +16STL 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P26:04Viktor Arvidsson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (9)STL 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 64% → 80% +16BOS 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P212:26Pavel Zacha Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (5), Mason Lohrei (10)STL 1 – 4 BOS · BOS 83% → 93% +10BOS 83% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML STL -142 / BOS +120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- STL: Elo 46.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -129
- BOS +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 2.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −6 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +22 Elo | BOS 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.1% | Shot share | 46.8%28th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 29th of 324–8 | Road vs home | 9–55th of 32 |
| 25th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 32 |
| 19th of 321486 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–15 | 20–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–13 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 11–2 | 19–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.