Boston Bruins at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Alex SteevesGoals2
- Fraser MintenAssists2
- Alex SteevesPoints2
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists1
- Mathew BarzalPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:21Alex Steeves Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (5)3–1
- P20:43Tanner Jeannot Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (4)2–1
- P16:23Alex Steeves Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (4), Michael Eyssimont (7)1–1
- P14:41Mathew Barzal Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (8), Matthew Schaefer (9)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:41Mathew Barzal Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (8), Matthew Schaefer (9)BOS 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 58% → 72% +14NYI 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P16:23Alex Steeves Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (4), Michael Eyssimont (7)BOS 1 – 1 NYI · BOS 28% → 42% +14BOS 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P20:43Tanner Jeannot Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (4)BOS 2 – 1 NYI · BOS 43% → 61% +18BOS 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P310:21Alex Steeves Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (5)BOS 3 – 1 NYI · BOS 79% → 96% +16BOS 79% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 59%
- ML BOS +135 / NYI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYI: Elo 55.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- NYI -143
- BOS +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +1 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +36 Elo | NYI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 50.5%14th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325–7 | Road vs home | 5–521st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 150511th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321482 | Elo rating | 148520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–7 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 16–4 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–11 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–3 NYI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.