New York Rangers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals2
- Adam FoxAssists3
- Adam FoxPoints3
Bruins- Casey MittelstadtGoals1
- Elias LindholmAssists2
- Elias LindholmPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:02Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Vincent Trocheck (6), Adam Fox (22)6–2
- P316:36Alexis Lafrenière Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Morrow (1)5–2
- P35:49Morgan Geekie Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Henri Jokiharju (6), Elias Lindholm (7)4–2
- P34:07Casey Mittelstadt Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (6)4–1
- P215:07Mika Zibanejad Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (18), Adam Fox (21)4–0
- P214:22Mika Zibanejad Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (17), Adam Fox (20)3–0
- P112:02Carson Soucy Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (5), Artemi Panarin (16)2–0
- P13:28Artemi Panarin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:28Artemi Panarin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (8)NYR 1 – 0 BOS · NYR 60% → 73% +14NYR 60% → 73%+14 pts
- P112:02Carson Soucy Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (5), Artemi Panarin (16)NYR 2 – 0 BOS · NYR 74% → 85% +11NYR 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P214:22Mika Zibanejad Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (17), Adam Fox (20)NYR 3 – 0 BOS · NYR 90% → 97% +7NYR 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P215:07Mika Zibanejad Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (18), Adam Fox (21)NYR 4 – 0 BOS · NYR 97% → >99% +2NYR 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P35:49Morgan Geekie Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Henri Jokiharju (6), Elias Lindholm (7)NYR 4 – 2 BOS · BOS <1% → 5% +4BOS <1% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 60%
- ML NYR -165 / BOS +140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- NYR: Elo 48.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYR -149
- BOS +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 2.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −4 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +9 Elo | BOS 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 47.0%27th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 90.3%13th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3210–5 | Road vs home | 8–44th of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 32 |
| 12th of 321509 | Elo rating | 148719th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–12 | 18–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 17–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–16 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 5–1 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.