Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Alex SteevesGoals2
- Hampus LindholmAssists3
- Hampus LindholmPoints3
Red Wings- Moritz SeiderGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Moritz SeiderPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:48Alex Steeves Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (13), Hampus Lindholm (9)4–5
- P314:57Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Hampus Lindholm (8), Morgan Geekie (8)3–5
- P33:55Lucas Raymond Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (15), Patrick Kane (13)2–5
- P216:15Ben Chiarot Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (16), Lucas Raymond (20)2–4
- P215:38Alex Steeves Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (7), Morgan Geekie (7)2–3
- P211:09Jonathan Aspirot Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (8), Tanner Jeannot (8)1–3
- P21:35Alex DeBrincat Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none0–3
- P113:49Moritz Seider Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (12), Alex DeBrincat (15)0–2
- P16:52James van Riemsdyk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Albert Johansson (3), Moritz Seider (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:52James van Riemsdyk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Albert Johansson (3), Moritz Seider (14)BOS 0 – 1 DET · DET 62% → 76% +14DET 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P113:49Moritz Seider Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (12), Alex DeBrincat (15)BOS 0 – 2 DET · DET 76% → 87% +11DET 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P21:35Alex DeBrincat Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: noneBOS 0 – 3 DET · DET 88% → 95% +7DET 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P215:38Alex Steeves Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (7), Morgan Geekie (7)BOS 2 – 3 DET · BOS 9% → 22% +13BOS 9% → 22%+13 pts
- P216:15Ben Chiarot Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (16), Lucas Raymond (20)BOS 2 – 4 DET · DET 79% → 91% +13DET 79% → 91%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 63%
- ML BOS +160 / DET -192
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- DET: Elo 52.7%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -171
- BOS +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.4 – 3.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −10 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +19 Elo | DET 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.023rd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 53.5%6th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 87.7%30th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 18th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 8–717th of 32 |
| 6th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321483 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–8 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–13 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–3 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.