Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- Dylan LarkinAssists2
- Dylan LarkinPoints2
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals2
- Elias LindholmAssists2
- Morgan GeekiePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Casey Mittelstadt Goal Backhand0–1
- P318:06Michael Rasmussen Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (11), Dylan Larkin (15)2–2
- P313:39Morgan Geekie Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (6), Elias Lindholm (9)1–2
- P36:38Lucas Raymond Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Larkin (14), Emmitt Finnie (7)1–1
- P24:25Morgan Geekie Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Elias Lindholm (8)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:25Morgan Geekie Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Elias Lindholm (8)DET 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 43% → 62% +19BOS 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P36:38Lucas Raymond Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Larkin (14), Emmitt Finnie (7)DET 1 – 1 BOS · DET 25% → 54% +29DET 25% → 54%+29 pts
- P313:39Morgan Geekie Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (6), Elias Lindholm (9)DET 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 47% → 85% +38BOS 47% → 85%+38 pts
- P318:06Michael Rasmussen Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (11), Dylan Larkin (15)DET 2 – 2 BOS · DET 2% → 52% +49DET 2% → 52%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML DET -160 / BOS +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.9 pts
- DET: Elo 45.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- BOS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 2.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +5 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +33 Elo | BOS 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 46.6%30th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 8–56th of 32 |
| 25th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 32 |
| 21st of 321485 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–12 | 18–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 17–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–11 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–4 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.