St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals2
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints2
Senators- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Stephen HallidayAssists1
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:39Fabian Zetterlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (2), Claude Giroux (13)2–1
- P30:12Jake Neighbours Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (9)2–0
- P217:36Jake Neighbours Goal (7) Batted, assists: Brayden Schenn (6), Pius Suter (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:36Jake Neighbours Goal (7) Batted, assists: Brayden Schenn (6), Pius Suter (7)STL 1 – 0 OTT · STL 45% → 68% +23STL 45% → 68%+23 pts
- P30:12Jake Neighbours Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (9)STL 2 – 0 OTT · STL 70% → 87% +18STL 70% → 87%+18 pts
- P315:39Fabian Zetterlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (2), Claude Giroux (13)STL 2 – 1 OTT · OTT <1% → 10% +9OTT <1% → 10%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 58%
- ML STL +130 / OTT -155
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 57.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −3 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +53 Elo | OTT 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.6% | Shot share | 50.6%14th of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 87.6%31st of 32 |
| 30th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 30th of 324–9 | Road vs home | 6–619th of 32 |
| 26th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 32 |
| 24th of 321482 | Elo rating | 150014th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–16 | 10–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–14 | 3–15 |
| Underdog | 11–2 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–1 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.