New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Vladislav GavrikovGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists3
- J.T. MillerPoints3
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Jake SandersonAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:16Artemi Panarin Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (10), Vincent Trocheck (8)4–2
- P313:08Drake Batherson Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Brady Tkachuk (6), Jake Sanderson (17)3–2
- P27:24Will Borgen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Carson Soucy (3), Jonny Brodzinski (3)3–1
- P118:30Dylan Cozens Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (14), Jake Sanderson (16)2–1
- P19:45Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (5), J.T. Miller (9)2–0
- P13:19Mika Zibanejad Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (8), Artemi Panarin (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:19Mika Zibanejad Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (8), Artemi Panarin (21)NYR 1 – 0 OTT · NYR 45% → 60% +15NYR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P19:45Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (5), J.T. Miller (9)NYR 2 – 0 OTT · NYR 61% → 75% +14NYR 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P118:30Dylan Cozens Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (14), Jake Sanderson (16)NYR 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 22% → 37% +15OTT 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P27:24Will Borgen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Carson Soucy (3), Jonny Brodzinski (3)NYR 3 – 1 OTT · NYR 66% → 81% +16NYR 66% → 81%+16 pts
- P313:08Drake Batherson Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Brady Tkachuk (6), Jake Sanderson (17)NYR 3 – 2 OTT · OTT 2% → 15% +13OTT 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 55%
- ML NYR +114 / OTT -135
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- OTT: Elo 54.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -123
- NYR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.6 – 2.9 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +33 Elo | OTT 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.1% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 87.5%32nd of 32 |
| 8th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 1st of 3211–5 | Road vs home | 6–513th of 32 |
| 12th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 150414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–13 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 3–14 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–18 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–2 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.