Dallas Stars at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists1
- Mikko RantanenPoints1
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Vladislav GavrikovPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:09Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Artemi Panarin (20), Mika Zibanejad (11)2–3
- P317:47Will Cuylle Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (7), Artemi Panarin (19)2–2
- P39:32Mikko Rantanen Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (15)2–1
- P19:04Kyle Capobianco Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P16:51Carson Soucy Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Laba (4), Conor Sheary (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:51Carson Soucy Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Laba (4), Conor Sheary (6)DAL 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 47% → 62% +15NYR 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P19:04Kyle Capobianco Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneDAL 1 – 1 NYR · DAL 37% → 53% +16DAL 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P39:32Mikko Rantanen Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (15)DAL 2 – 1 NYR · DAL 51% → 82% +30DAL 51% → 82%+30 pts
- P317:47Will Cuylle Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (7), Artemi Panarin (19)DAL 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 3% → 49% +47NYR 3% → 49%+47 pts
- OT1:09Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Artemi Panarin (20), Mika Zibanejad (11)DAL 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 49% → 92% +43NYR 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML DAL -125 / NYR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 52.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -114
- NYR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 2.7 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +14 Elo | DAL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | 0.013th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.7% | Shot share | 47.5%24th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–4 | Road vs home | 2–932nd of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321554 | Elo rating | 151012th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–15 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13 | 10–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–2 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.