Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Rangers- J.T. MillerGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:42Jake Guentzel Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (5), Darren Raddysh (13)4–1
- P32:02Nick Paul Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Kucherov (21), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (6)3–1
- P217:31J.T. Miller Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Adam Fox (23), Mika Zibanejad (10)2–1
- P28:57Brandon Hagel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (20), Darren Raddysh (12)2–0
- P110:53Brandon Hagel Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (11), Nikita Kucherov (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:53Brandon Hagel Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (11), Nikita Kucherov (19)TB 1 – 0 NYR · TB 46% → 62% +16TB 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P28:57Brandon Hagel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (20), Darren Raddysh (12)TB 2 – 0 NYR · TB 67% → 83% +16TB 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P217:31J.T. Miller Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Adam Fox (23), Mika Zibanejad (10)TB 2 – 1 NYR · NYR 13% → 30% +17NYR 13% → 30%+17 pts
- P32:02Nick Paul Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Kucherov (21), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (6)TB 3 – 1 NYR · TB 73% → 90% +17TB 73% → 90%+17 pts
- P319:42Jake Guentzel Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (5), Darren Raddysh (13)TB 4 – 1 NYR · TB 100% → 100% +0TB 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 54%
- ML TB +110 / NYR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NYR: Elo 53.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 3.4 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYR and TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −22 | +1 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.56 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +23 Elo | NYR 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.2% | Shot share | 48.2%22nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–4 | Road vs home | 2–832nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321550 | Elo rating | 151511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–13 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 6–0 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–4 NYR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.