Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Brandon HagelPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:45Brandon Hagel Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (15), Anthony Cirelli (7)0–3
- P216:00Anthony Cirelli Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Hagel (11), Nikita Kucherov (14)0–2
- P115:34Brandon Hagel Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Emil Lilleberg (3), Nikita Kucherov (13)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:34Brandon Hagel Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Emil Lilleberg (3), Nikita Kucherov (13)PHI 0 – 1 TB · TB 61% → 76% +15TB 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P216:00Anthony Cirelli Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Hagel (11), Nikita Kucherov (14)PHI 0 – 2 TB · TB 78% → 91% +13TB 78% → 91%+13 pts
- P319:45Brandon Hagel Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (15), Anthony Cirelli (7)PHI 0 – 3 TB · TB 100% → 100% +0TB 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 62%
- ML PHI +155 / TB -185
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- TB: Elo 66.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -166
- PHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.4 – 3.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +10 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +122 Elo | TB 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 66.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 48.9%20th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%13th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–4 | Road vs home | 6–514th of 32 |
| 15th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 32 |
| 29th of 321469 | Elo rating | 15396th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–8 | 8–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 2–13 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 6–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–3 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.