Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- John BeecherAssists1
- Joel FarabeePoints1
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals1
- Jake GuentzelAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:23Nikita Kucherov Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (12), Darren Raddysh (8)1–5
- P31:04Joel Farabee Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: John Beecher (1), Yan Kuznetsov (2)1–4
- P110:01Declan Carlile Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Santini (1), Jake Guentzel (12)0–4
- P15:52Zemgus Girgensons Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (4), Pontus Holmberg (5)0–3
- P11:26Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Paul (1), Jake Guentzel (11)0–2
- P10:39Brandon Hagel Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (8), Nikita Kucherov (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:39Brandon Hagel Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (8), Nikita Kucherov (16)CGY 0 – 1 TB · TB 60% → 73% +13TB 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P11:26Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Paul (1), Jake Guentzel (11)CGY 0 – 2 TB · TB 73% → 84% +11TB 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P15:52Zemgus Girgensons Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (4), Pontus Holmberg (5)CGY 0 – 3 TB · TB 84% → 92% +7TB 84% → 92%+7 pts
- P110:01Declan Carlile Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Santini (1), Jake Guentzel (12)CGY 0 – 4 TB · TB 92% → 97% +4TB 92% → 97%+4 pts
- P31:04Joel Farabee Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: John Beecher (1), Yan Kuznetsov (2)CGY 1 – 4 TB · CGY <1% → 2% +2CGY <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML CGY +140 / TB -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- TB: Elo 64.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -149
- CGY +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.5 – 3.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +11 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +105 Elo | TB 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 64.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 48.8%20th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 29th of 324–10 | Road vs home | 7–511th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150610th of 32 |
| 27th of 321476 | Elo rating | 15426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–10 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–13 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 6–0 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–2 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.