Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints1
Maple LeafsScoring summary
- SO0:00Alexandre Texier Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Auston Matthews Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P310:28Scott Laughton Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (8)1–1
- P28:25Cole Caufield Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (7), Ivan Demidov (15)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:25Cole Caufield Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (7), Ivan Demidov (15)MTL 1 – 0 TOR · MTL 45% → 65% +20MTL 45% → 65%+20 pts
- P310:28Scott Laughton Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (8)MTL 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 20% → 53% +33TOR 20% → 53%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 56%
- ML MTL +120 / TOR -142
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -129
- MTL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −11 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +67 Elo | TOR 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 46.5%30th of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 9th of 327–5 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 32 |
| 19th of 321486 | Elo rating | 15299th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–16 | 11–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 19–7 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–7 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.