Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Troy StecherGoals1
- Troy StecherAssists1
- Troy StecherPoints2
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Anton LundellAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41John Tavares Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (8), Max Domi (6)4–1
- P312:18Scott Laughton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (5)3–1
- P214:43Sam Reinhart Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (14)2–1
- P17:54Dakota Joshua Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (6), Troy Stecher (3)2–0
- P15:24Troy Stecher Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (5), Dakota Joshua (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:24Troy Stecher Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (5), Dakota Joshua (4)TOR 1 – 0 FLA · TOR 40% → 55% +15TOR 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P17:54Dakota Joshua Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (6), Troy Stecher (3)TOR 2 – 0 FLA · TOR 56% → 70% +15TOR 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P214:43Sam Reinhart Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (14)TOR 2 – 1 FLA · FLA 17% → 35% +18FLA 17% → 35%+18 pts
- P312:18Scott Laughton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (5)TOR 3 – 1 FLA · TOR 82% → 97% +15TOR 82% → 97%+15 pts
- P319:41John Tavares Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (8), Max Domi (6)TOR 4 – 1 FLA · TOR 100% → 100% +0TOR 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 60%
- ML TOR +142 / FLA -170
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- FLA: Elo 60.0%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- FLA -152
- TOR +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +7 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +70 Elo | FLA 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 52.8%7th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.1%23rd of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 32 |
| 30th of 323–7 | Road vs home | 8–610th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 32 |
| 11th of 321517 | Elo rating | 15425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–16 | 7–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 18–7 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–9 FLA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 15.
- May 18FLA 6 @ TOR 1PlayoffsPicked FLA 57%Hit
- May 16TOR 2 @ FLA 0PlayoffsPicked FLA 65%Miss
- May 14FLA 6 @ TOR 1PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Hit
- May 11TOR 0 @ FLA 2PlayoffsPicked FLA 64%Hit
- May 9TOR 4 @ FLA 5PlayoffsPicked FLA 67%Hit
- May 7FLA 3 @ TOR 4PlayoffsPicked FLA 59%Miss
- May 5FLA 4 @ TOR 5PlayoffsPicked FLA 53%Miss
- Apr 8TOR 1 @ FLA 3Picked FLA 60%Hit