Calgary Flames at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists1
- Joel FarabeePoints2
Panthers- Sam BennettGoals1
- Sam ReinhartAssists2
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:57Joel Farabee Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (16)5–3
- P311:54Brad Marchand Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (10), Anton Lundell (13)4–3
- P218:44Nazem Kadri Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Andersson (13), Joel Farabee (6)4–2
- P20:55Morgan Frost Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Andersson (12), Nazem Kadri (15)3–2
- P110:41MacKenzie Weegar Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (10), Connor Zary (2)2–2
- P15:35Yan Kuznetsov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (3)1–2
- P12:58Sam Bennett Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (4), Carter Verhaeghe (12)0–2
- P10:54Evan Rodrigues Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (9), Jesper Boqvist (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:54Evan Rodrigues Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (9), Jesper Boqvist (3)CGY 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 61% → 74% +13FLA 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P110:41MacKenzie Weegar Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (10), Connor Zary (2)CGY 2 – 2 FLA · CGY 25% → 40% +14CGY 25% → 40%+14 pts
- P20:55Morgan Frost Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Andersson (12), Nazem Kadri (15)CGY 3 – 2 FLA · CGY 41% → 59% +18CGY 41% → 59%+18 pts
- P218:44Nazem Kadri Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Andersson (13), Joel Farabee (6)CGY 4 – 2 FLA · CGY 67% → 85% +18CGY 67% → 85%+18 pts
- P311:54Brad Marchand Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (10), Anton Lundell (13)CGY 4 – 3 FLA · FLA 3% → 19% +16FLA 3% → 19%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 61%
- ML CGY +150 / FLA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- FLA: Elo 63.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- FLA -159
- CGY +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −25 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.63 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +93 Elo | FLA 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | 0.018th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 52.7%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.2%21st of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 29th of 324–11 | Road vs home | 8–55th of 32 |
| 20th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 32 |
| 28th of 321472 | Elo rating | 15474th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–11 | 7–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–9 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–2 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.