Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Emil AndraeGoals1
- Jamie DrysdaleAssists2
- Emil AndraePoints2
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Sam BennettAssists2
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:35Sean Couturier Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Christian Dvorak (9)4–2
- P319:14Tyson Foerster Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (6), Cam York (10)3–2
- P211:13Matvei Michkov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (4), Jamie Drysdale (8)2–2
- P27:57Emil Andrae Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (7), Owen Tippett (8)1–2
- P25:16Carter Verhaeghe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (6), Aaron Ekblad (6)0–2
- P15:21Brad Marchand Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (5), Carter Verhaeghe (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:21Brad Marchand Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (5), Carter Verhaeghe (11)PHI 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 62% → 75% +13FLA 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P25:16Carter Verhaeghe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (6), Aaron Ekblad (6)PHI 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 76% → 88% +12FLA 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P27:57Emil Andrae Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (7), Owen Tippett (8)PHI 1 – 2 FLA · PHI 11% → 23% +12PHI 11% → 23%+12 pts
- P211:13Matvei Michkov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (4), Jamie Drysdale (8)PHI 2 – 2 FLA · PHI 23% → 41% +19PHI 23% → 41%+19 pts
- P319:14Tyson Foerster Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (6), Cam York (10)PHI 3 – 2 FLA · PHI 49% → >99% +51PHI 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 62%
- ML PHI +155 / FLA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- FLA: Elo 66.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -166
- PHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.4 – 3.1 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +7 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +120 Elo | FLA 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 52.4%8th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 8–45th of 32 |
| 12th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 32 |
| 29th of 321466 | Elo rating | 15522nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–9 | 7–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–4 FLA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.