Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Max DomiAssists2
- Matthew KniesPoints2
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Seth JarvisPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:16Bobby McMann Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (7)5–1
- P210:39Auston Matthews Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (8), Matthew Knies (21)4–1
- P24:44Matthew Knies Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (7), Morgan Rielly (17)3–1
- P115:45Seth Jarvis Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (16), Sebastian Aho (17)2–1
- P111:45Scott Laughton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Philippe Myers (1), Simon Benoit (3)2–0
- P10:53Bobby McMann Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (6), Jake McCabe (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:53Bobby McMann Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (6), Jake McCabe (8)TOR 1 – 0 CAR · TOR 36% → 50% +14TOR 36% → 50%+14 pts
- P111:45Scott Laughton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Philippe Myers (1), Simon Benoit (3)TOR 2 – 0 CAR · TOR 53% → 68% +16TOR 53% → 68%+16 pts
- P115:45Seth Jarvis Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (16), Sebastian Aho (17)TOR 2 – 1 CAR · CAR 30% → 46% +16CAR 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P24:44Matthew Knies Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (7), Morgan Rielly (17)TOR 3 – 1 CAR · TOR 58% → 75% +17TOR 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P210:39Auston Matthews Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (8), Matthew Knies (21)TOR 4 – 1 CAR · TOR 78% → 90% +12TOR 78% → 90%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML TOR +170 / CAR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 58.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CAR -181
- TOR +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −3 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +57 Elo | CAR 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.7% | Shot share | 57.6%1st of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%21st of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 25th of 324–7 | Road vs home | 8–44th of 32 |
| 30th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 32 |
| 9th of 321523 | Elo rating | 15474th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–16 | 10–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 18–8 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–5 CAR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.