Calgary Flames at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors CAR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames
Hurricanes- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Taylor HallAssists1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:52Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (8), Sean Walker (5)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- OT2:52Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (8), Sean Walker (5)CGY 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 54% → 98% +44CAR 54% → 98%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 69%
- ML CGY +215 / CAR -260
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 65.6%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- CAR -228
- CGY +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.7 – 3.8 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +2 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +112 Elo | CAR 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 68.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 57.8%1st of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 9th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 32 |
| 30th of 325–11 | Road vs home | 7–45th of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 32 |
| 25th of 321477 | Elo rating | 15464th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–11 | 10–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 17–9 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 1–3 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.