Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals2
- Tommy NovakAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints3
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals2
- Darren RaddyshAssists2
- Brandon HagelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:17Evgeni Malkin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (9), Anthony Mantha (8)4–3
- P311:44Brandon Hagel Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Paul (4), Gage Goncalves (5)3–3
- P31:17Brandon Hagel Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (22), Darren Raddysh (15)3–2
- P218:46Nikita Kucherov Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (14), Jake Guentzel (14)3–1
- P29:49Ben Kindel Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (17), Evgeni Malkin (21)3–0
- P27:53Evgeni Malkin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P16:12Ville Koivunen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (10), Thomas Novak (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:12Ville Koivunen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (10), Thomas Novak (8)PIT 1 – 0 TB · PIT 42% → 57% +15PIT 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P27:53Evgeni Malkin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 2 – 0 TB · PIT 64% → 80% +17PIT 64% → 80%+17 pts
- P31:17Brandon Hagel Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (22), Darren Raddysh (15)PIT 3 – 2 TB · TB 12% → 30% +18TB 12% → 30%+18 pts
- P311:44Brandon Hagel Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Paul (4), Gage Goncalves (5)PIT 3 – 3 TB · TB 18% → 53% +35TB 18% → 53%+35 pts
- P317:17Evgeni Malkin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (9), Anthony Mantha (8)PIT 4 – 3 TB · PIT 48% → 95% +47PIT 48% → 95%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML PIT +130 / TB -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- TB: Elo 61.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −19 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.47 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +77 Elo | TB 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 19th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 49.4%17th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 91.0%5th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 9th of 327–5 | Road vs home | 8–57th of 32 |
| 27th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 32 |
| 18th of 321487 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–7 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 15–2 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–4 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.