Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Bryan RustAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints3
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:33Kevin Hayes Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (8)5–1
- P313:52Thomas Novak Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (9), Evgeni Malkin (20)4–1
- P215:52Bryan Rust Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (19), Erik Karlsson (16)3–1
- P28:08Sidney Crosby Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (13), Erik Karlsson (15)2–1
- P25:36Tyson Foerster Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (15), Trevor Zegras (16)1–1
- P19:18Sidney Crosby Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (12), Anthony Mantha (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:18Sidney Crosby Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (12), Anthony Mantha (7)PIT 1 – 0 PHI · PIT 43% → 59% +16PIT 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P25:36Tyson Foerster Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (15), Trevor Zegras (16)PIT 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 36% → 55% +19PHI 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P28:08Sidney Crosby Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (13), Erik Karlsson (15)PIT 2 – 1 PHI · PIT 45% → 64% +20PIT 45% → 64%+20 pts
- P215:52Bryan Rust Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (19), Erik Karlsson (16)PIT 3 – 1 PHI · PIT 68% → 85% +17PIT 68% → 85%+17 pts
- P313:52Thomas Novak Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (9), Evgeni Malkin (20)PIT 4 – 1 PHI · PIT 99% → >99% +1PIT 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PIT +125 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -133
- PIT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +39 Elo | PHI 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.38th of 32 |
| 18th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 48.6%20th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%19th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 8–57th of 32 |
| 28th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321481 | Elo rating | 147924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–7 | 15–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 14–2 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–5 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.