Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals2
- Travis KonecnyAssists2
- Owen TippettPoints3
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists2
- Dawson MercerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:11Owen Tippett Goal (8) , assists: none5–3
- P36:28Dawson Mercer Goal (10) Backhand, assists: none4–3
- P219:33Timo Meier Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (10), Jesper Bratt (19)4–2
- P213:03Trevor Zegras Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (9)4–1
- P23:16Matvei Michkov Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Travis Konecny (14), Cam York (11)3–1
- P20:53Matvei Michkov Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (13), Travis Sanheim (7)2–1
- P112:09Simon Nemec Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (18), Nico Hischier (14)1–1
- P15:18Owen Tippett Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Christian Dvorak (10), Trevor Zegras (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:18Owen Tippett Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Christian Dvorak (10), Trevor Zegras (15)PHI 1 – 0 NJ · PHI 44% → 59% +15PHI 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P112:09Simon Nemec Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (18), Nico Hischier (14)PHI 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 39% → 56% +16NJ 39% → 56%+16 pts
- P20:53Matvei Michkov Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (13), Travis Sanheim (7)PHI 2 – 1 NJ · PHI 45% → 63% +18PHI 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P23:16Matvei Michkov Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Travis Konecny (14), Cam York (11)PHI 3 – 1 NJ · PHI 63% → 79% +16PHI 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P36:28Dawson Mercer Goal (10) Backhand, assists: nonePHI 4 – 3 NJ · NJ 7% → 24% +17NJ 7% → 24%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 56%
- ML PHI +120 / NJ -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 59.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -128
- PHI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.6 – 2.9 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NJ and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | 0 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +64 Elo | NJ 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.38th of 32 |
| 18th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 50.6%13th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.2%13th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 9–11st of 32 |
| 5th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 32 |
| 27th of 321475 | Elo rating | 151211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–9 | 10–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–4 NJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.