Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals1
- Matvei MichkovAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Islanders- Matthew SchaeferGoals1
- Matthew SchaeferAssists1
- Matthew SchaeferPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Travis Konecny Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Simon Holmstrom Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Trevor Zegras Goal Backhand2–1
- P219:13Anders Lee Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Max Shabanov (4), Matthew Schaefer (10)3–3
- P28:11Matthew Schaefer Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (5), Ryan Pulock (10)3–2
- P25:42Emil Heineman Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (12), Kyle Palmieri (12)3–1
- P21:55Trevor Zegras Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (5), Matvei Michkov (6)3–0
- P18:52Sean Couturier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P18:30Tyson Foerster Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:30Tyson Foerster Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 1 – 0 NYI · PHI 44% → 60% +16PHI 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P18:52Sean Couturier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: nonePHI 2 – 0 NYI · PHI 60% → 74% +14PHI 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P21:55Trevor Zegras Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (5), Matvei Michkov (6)PHI 3 – 0 NYI · PHI 79% → 89% +11PHI 79% → 89%+11 pts
- P28:11Matthew Schaefer Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (5), Ryan Pulock (10)PHI 3 – 2 NYI · NYI 19% → 35% +16NYI 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P219:13Anders Lee Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Max Shabanov (4), Matthew Schaefer (10)PHI 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 30% → 54% +24NYI 30% → 54%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 56%
- ML PHI +120 / NYI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- NYI: Elo 58.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -128
- PHI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.6 – 2.9 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +8 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +59 Elo | NYI 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 51.5%10th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%12th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–5 | Road vs home | 5–624th of 32 |
| 6th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 32 |
| 29th of 321472 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–9 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–4 NYI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.