Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Dominic JamesGoals1
- Nick PaulAssists1
- Dominic JamesPoints1
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:26Dominic James Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (4), Nick Paul (3)1–2
- P35:30Anthony Duclair Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (2), Tony DeAngelo (9)0–2
- P20:55Bo Horvat Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Shabanov (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:55Bo Horvat Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Shabanov (5)TB 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 48% → 66% +18NYI 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P35:30Anthony Duclair Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (2), Tony DeAngelo (9)TB 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 76% → 93% +17NYI 76% → 93%+17 pts
- P316:26Dominic James Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (4), Nick Paul (3)TB 1 – 2 NYI · TB <1% → 7% +7TB <1% → 7%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -122 / NYI +102
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- TB: Elo 58.3%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -111
- NYI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.8 – 2.7 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −1 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +58 Elo | TB 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.926th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 52.2%9th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%15th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–4 | Road vs home | 5–827th of 32 |
| 9th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321555 | Elo rating | 147426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–13 | 11–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–2 NYI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.