Washington Capitals at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals2
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints3
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Ryan PulockAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:29Alex Ovechkin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (4)4–1
- P318:49Aliaksei Protas Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (5), Tom Wilson (14)3–1
- P313:43Bo Horvat Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (11), Matthew Schaefer (11)2–1
- P213:58Tom Wilson Goal (15) Backhand, assists: none2–0
- P17:37Tom Wilson Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Alex Ovechkin (13), Ryan Leonard (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:37Tom Wilson Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Alex Ovechkin (13), Ryan Leonard (8)WSH 1 – 0 NYI · WSH 55% → 69% +15WSH 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P213:58Tom Wilson Goal (15) Backhand, assists: noneWSH 2 – 0 NYI · WSH 74% → 88% +15WSH 74% → 88%+15 pts
- P313:43Bo Horvat Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (11), Matthew Schaefer (11)WSH 2 – 1 NYI · NYI 1% → 12% +11NYI 1% → 12%+11 pts
- P318:49Aliaksei Protas Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (5), Tom Wilson (14)WSH 3 – 1 NYI · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:29Alex Ovechkin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (4)WSH 4 – 1 NYI · WSH >99% → 100% +0WSH >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML WSH -130 / NYI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.6%, market 54.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -122
- NYI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 2.6 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | 0 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +25 Elo | WSH 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 4th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.1% | Shot share | 51.8%9th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%15th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 5–725th of 32 |
| 1st of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 32 |
| 7th of 321533 | Elo rating | 147825th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–11 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–4 NYI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.