Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Tommy NovakGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Tommy NovakPoints1
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Roope HintzAssists1
- Jamie BennPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mikko Rantanen Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P318:11Miro Heiskanen Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (18), Mikko Rantanen (26)2–2
- P25:56Thomas Novak Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (11), Sidney Crosby (12)2–1
- P21:27Jamie Benn Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (17), Jason Robertson (20)1–1
- P118:18Connor Dewar Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (2), Noel Acciari (4)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:18Connor Dewar Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (2), Noel Acciari (4)PIT 1 – 0 DAL · PIT 40% → 58% +17PIT 40% → 58%+17 pts
- P21:27Jamie Benn Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (17), Jason Robertson (20)PIT 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 41% → 59% +18DAL 41% → 59%+18 pts
- P25:56Thomas Novak Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (11), Sidney Crosby (12)PIT 2 – 1 DAL · PIT 41% → 60% +19PIT 41% → 60%+19 pts
- P318:11Miro Heiskanen Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (18), Mikko Rantanen (26)PIT 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 2% → 52% +50DAL 2% → 52%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 62%
- ML PIT +150 / DAL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -161
- PIT +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.4 – 3.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +103 Elo | DAL 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 48.5%21st of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 91.2%4th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 4th of 328–5 | Road vs home | 9–54th of 32 |
| 25th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 32 |
| 17th of 321490 | Elo rating | 15582nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–7 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 16–2 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.