Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Miro HeiskanenGoals1
- Esa LindellAssists2
- Miro HeiskanenPoints2
DevilsScoring summary
- P37:05Mikko Rantanen Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (7), Miro Heiskanen (20)3–0
- P217:36Jason Robertson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (6), Jamie Benn (5)2–0
- P211:34Miro Heiskanen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (15), Jamie Benn (4)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:34Miro Heiskanen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (15), Jamie Benn (4)DAL 1 – 0 NJ · DAL 49% → 70% +20DAL 49% → 70%+20 pts
- P217:36Jason Robertson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (6), Jamie Benn (5)DAL 2 – 0 NJ · DAL 72% → 88% +16DAL 72% → 88%+16 pts
- P37:05Mikko Rantanen Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (7), Miro Heiskanen (20)DAL 3 – 0 NJ · DAL 94% → >99% +5DAL 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 51%
- ML DAL -105 / NJ -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 52.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -104
- DAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.7 – 2.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +14 Elo | NJ 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.2% | Shot share | 50.9%12th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 2nd of 329–5 | Road vs home | 9–32nd of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321551 | Elo rating | 150215th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–16 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–16 | 3–13 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–1 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.